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Prediction for CME (2026-07-24T04:38:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-07-24T04:38Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/47753/-1
CME Note: CME first seen to the SE in STEREO A COR2 starting around 2026-07-24T04:38Z. It is also seen to the S in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1. The source is a filament eruption centered around S20E15 best seen in SDO AIA 193 starting as early as 2026-07-24T04:04Z. The arrival of this CME may have been detected at L1 at 2026-07-27T15:27Z, characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal increasing from ~5nT to 7nT, an increase in speed from ~360 km/s to ~420 km/s, and increases in density and temperature.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2026-07-27T15:27Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-07-27T11:00Z (-10.0h, +10.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
Prediction Method Note:

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
BoM ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.7
Grid: 256x30x90
Resolution: low
Ambient settings: a5b1 -sa1
Ejecta settings: 
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: mrbqz

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2026-07-24T08:58Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 796
Longitude (deg): -19
Latitude (deg): -7
Half-angular width (deg): 28

Notes:

Lead Time: 59.45 hour(s)
Difference: 4.45 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) on 2026-07-25T04:00Z

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